Why Averages Are Deceiving — Batter Hard%
As more and more advanced metrics are publicized and used in analysis and discussion, opportunity for misuse and misinterpretation of these statistics continues to increase. First, remember that a statistic is a fact. The metric in and of itself isn’t wrong or bad, but rather the use and interpretation might be. Some metrics are easier to misinterpret than others. One such metric type is the use of an average, which applies to many metrics. Averages are fine if used properly. For example, we could say a .350 hitter recorded more hits per at-bat than a .300 hitter, but we absolutely cannot say that the .350 hitter is better than the .300 hitter, solely using the difference in batting average as the determining factor.
So let’s use this logic with Hard%. It would be easy to compare two hitters’ Hard% marks and consider the guy with the higher historical marks to possess more power or HR/FB rate potential. This would be wrong. Hard% includes all batted ball types. If you’re only interested in a hitter’s power potential, then why would you care what his groundball Hard% marks have been? Remember, groundballs are included in Hard%.
What follows is a list of 15 hitters whose 2020 FB Hard% most exceeded their overall Hard%. These hitters’ Hard% marks are being dragged down by significantly lower groundball Hard% marks, but we don’t care about that if we’re evaluating the hitters’ power. These are the guys who one might perceive as having lesser power potential than they displayed in 2020 if one were to only look at Hard% and not Hard% broken down by batted ball type.
| Name | Hard% | GB Hard% | FB Hard% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Taylor | 36.6% | 20.7% | 71.4% | 34.8% |
| Garrett Hampson | 26.1% | 11.4% | 52.6% | 26.5% |
| Matt Kemp | 34.2% | 9.7% | 60.0% | 25.8% |
| Tony Wolters | 30.6% | 24.0% | 56.3% | 25.7% |
| Shogo Akiyama | 24.8% | 13.6% | 50.0% | 25.2% |
| Ryan McMahon | 40.2% | 22.2% | 64.9% | 24.7% |
| Juan Soto | 42.1% | 26.2% | 66.7% | 24.6% |
| Eric Hosmer | 41.0% | 25.9% | 65.0% | 24.0% |
| Austin Slater | 31.3% | 20.0% | 55.0% | 23.7% |
| Tim Anderson | 32.1% | 18.4% | 54.8% | 22.7% |
| Salvador Perez | 42.6% | 29.3% | 65.1% | 22.5% |
| Jedd Gyorko | 32.1% | 12.5% | 54.5% | 22.4% |
| Dominic Smith | 37.8% | 25.5% | 60.0% | 22.2% |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 36.7% | 19.2% | 57.6% | 20.9% |
| Alec Bohm | 27.8% | 22.4% | 46.9% | 19.1% |
| League Average | 33.3% | 26.2% | 39.7% | 6.4% |
Gosh, Chris Taylor has appeared on so many of my positive lists. Though he’s not strong defensively, at least he has experience at multiple positions and wouldn’t embarrass himself. He’s one of the more underappreciated players in the game and that FB Hard% actually ranked first among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season. You would have never realized it if just focusing on his slightly better than league average overall Hard%.
Holy guacamole, who would have guessed Garrett Hampson would appear second here?! He’s a really interesting name because that overall 26.1% Hard% is well below the league average and suggests he’s unable to fully take advantage of his home run friendly confines of Coors Field. Now that we’ve separated out his FB Hard%, we learn that he does indeed have the necessary power. It’s baffling that his GB Hard% was so low, but who cares if we’re just wondering what his home run potential is?! With David Dahl surprisingly non-tendered, playing time will be a bit easier to come by now and his power/speed mix makes him an intriguing purchase.
It looks like Japanese rookie Shogo Akiyama offered almost no power, and his surface results make it hard to think otherwise. He failed to hit a home run and posted a measly .052 ISO. But that FB Hard% is actually pretty good and suggests there’s actually more power potential in his bat than we may have thought. He’ll obviously need to raise his FB% to take advantage of any power that shows up next year, but he looks like a nice, cheap target in deeper leagues, especially those that count OBP.
Nobody has questioned Ryan McMahon’s power, but he looks even better when separating out his FB Hard%. That helps explain his mid-20% HR/FB rate, which you wouldn’t necessarily expect given an overall Hard% better, but not significantly, than league average. Like Hampson, his playing time is a bit more secure now with Dahl’s departure, though you have to wonder how much the Rockies will be willing put up with his weak defense at second base. The DH returning to the NL next year would really help his situation.
Yup, Juan Soto’s power is even better than you thought if just relying on overall Hard%. That mammoth FB Hard% helps explain how his HR/FB rate surged into the mid-30% range. He’s already possibly the best hitter in baseball and he just completed his age 21 season! WHAAAAAAAAAT?!?!?!
See, Eric Hosmer, all it took was a change in batted ball distribution to become at least a league average fly ball hitter and good power things will happen. He always had the fly ball power, he just was barely taking advantage of it thanks to his pathetic FB%. This came in just 143 at-bats, though, so let’s see if this 30% FB% sticks next year.
The sample was small, but this was an impressive breakout for Austin Slater. The Giants need to give him a starting outfield job and just let him play for at least a couple of months before considering that a slump pushes him to the bench.
Count me as one of those who has been very surprised by Tim Anderson’s power growth. When he made his debut, I think we all expected him to be a major stolen base contributor with a touch of power. Instead, he has only been a decent stolen base contributor, while his power has now outperformed his speed. He has now hit more homers than he has stolen bases in each of the past two seasons. If he’s truly a 25+ homer and 15 steal guy now, he’s suddenly a legit top shortstop option, which is something I never expected to type in the past, given his heavy reliance on a huge BABIP, along with terrible plate discipline metrics.
Boy, this was quite the return from missing all of 2019 for Salvador Perez! You never know how a hitter is going to recover from TJ surgery, so the Royals certainly breathed a sigh of relief.
Don’t be fooled by Dominic Smith’s only marginally better than league average Hard%, as that FB Hard% was elite. The Mets are most certainly praying the DH will remain in the NL next year, so they won’t have to figure out how to get both he and Pete Alonso into the lineup every day without destroying their defense.
Nicholas Castellanos’ Hard% actually fell to its lowest mark since 2016, but his FB Hard% was actually the highest of his career! How’s that for a perfect example of why you need to be careful when using overall Hard% for analysis? As many had predicted, Castellanos has now posted significantly higher HR/FB rates playing for teams not named the Detroit Tigers, supporting the idea that his home ballpark suppressed his power output.
Don’t be too disappointed by Alec Bohm’s Hard% during his eagerly anticipated 2020 debut, as it was mostly dragged down by a low GB Hard% combined with a high GB%. His above average FB Hard% suggests the power surge fueling his 2019 Double-A HR/FB rate spike was sustained in the Majors.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
December 08, 2020 at 08:17PM
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/why-averages-are-deceiving-batter-hard/
Why Averages Are Deceiving — Batter Hard% - fangraphs.com
https://news.google.com/search?q=hard&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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