The Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to terms with free-agent right-hander Trevor Bauer on a three-year deal worth $102 million that contains opt-outs after the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Bauer joins a championship-winning squad that already had Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and David Price in its rotation. While the Dodgers still have other areas to address (third baseman Justin Turner is still a free agent, while left fielder Joc Pederson has departed to join the Chicago Cubs), it's fair to see them as the favorites in the National League West entering another spring -- that despite the San Diego Padres' best efforts this offseason.
So, what kind of impact Bauer will have on the Dodgers' chances of repeating as World Series champions? For insight into that, we defer to SportsLine's projections, as calculated by Stephen Oh.
According to Oh's numbers, Bauer nets the Dodgers an additional 0.5 wins and increases their championship likelihood by 1.1 percentage points. If that makes Bauer's addition appear less impactful than it may seem, it's because SportsLine is factoring in more than the results of last season, in which Bauer took advantage of an 11-game sprint against the shaky competition offered to him by both Central divisions.
Still, it's easy to foresee Bauer outpacing that mark. FanGraphs' ZiPs projection system has the full-season difference between Bauer and Dustin May (arguably the best Dodgers pitcher displaced here) at 2.2 wins, while its Steamer system has the difference pegged at over three wins. The system-to-system variance can be explained in part by the concept of "stickiness." Some systems are built to be influenced by more recent results, as a means of capturing in-progress breakouts.
In Bauer's case, it's hard to suss out what's real and what was the product of the circumstances -- a small sample against lackluster offenses. Further complicating things is that he saw his spin rate jump in a way that he once alleged could occur only with the use of grip-enhancing substances.
Whether or not Bauer can sustain those gains is to be seen. It's worth remembering that he entered the 2020 season with a career 109 ERA+; a return to that level of performance would still be worthwhile for the Dodgers -- just, perhaps, not to the extent they hoped.
February 06, 2021 at 03:18AM
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-trevor-bauers-on-field-impact-for-the-dodgers-might-be-hard-to-pin-down-per-projection-system/
Why Trevor Bauer's on-field impact for the Dodgers might be hard to pin down, per projection system - CBS Sports
https://news.google.com/search?q=hard&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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