As Michigan is in the midst of the nation’s largest current coronavirus surge, experts say it’s hard to put the blame on one variable. Rather, the current influx of infections could be due to several reasons.
While other states have the more contagious variants present and similarly reduced restrictions as Michigan, they aren’t experiencing the same surges and it’s hard to pinpoint why, said Joseph Eisenberg, a global public health expert at the University of Michigan.
It will likely take years to understand which restrictions worked to combat the spread of the coronavirus and which did not, as well as what led to the surges, Eisenberg said.
“It’s not as deterministic as some people think, the spread of a virus throughout a community,” he said. “I know it’s not a satisfying answer. Yes, variants may be playing a role and the fact that COVID fatigue is happening. It’s a combination of a lot of things but also, a lot of spread and outbreaks are what we call stochastic events. It’s random.”
Michigan is averaging 6,429 cases of COVID-19 per day over the last week -- its highest average since Dec. 5. At 72 cases per 100,000 people per day over the last seven days, Michigan has the worst current surge in the nation.
On Friday, April 9, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer recommended, but didn’t order, high schools to go virtual, youth sports to pause and residents to avoid indoor dining for two weeks to combat the surge. She also urged Michiganders to continue safe practices like masking up and social distancing, and to also get a vaccine.
As of Tuesday, Michigan had confirmed 1,649 cases of the B.1.1.7, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. That’s second, behind Florida’s 3,192 cases.
In comparing Michigan to Florida, one explanation could be that weather in Florida permits more outdoor activities, which reduces transmission risks, said Dr. Anthony Harris, chief innovation officer and medical director for WorkCare. WorkCare is a physician-directed health company focusing on employee health.
In Michigan, Harris said it’s also more commonly a younger demographic, likely those not adhering to masking and distancing guidelines, who are contracting and transmitting the coronavirus. Paired with variants becoming more common, Harris said this combination is leading to surges across the board.
The more contagious strains of coronavirus are one of a variety of factors that could be contributing to the current surge, said Susan Ringler-Cerniglia, communications administrator for the Washtenaw County Health Department. She cited reduced restrictions, more gatherings, resuming of youth sports, pandemic fatigue and people letting their guard down due to vaccine optimism as reasons Michigan is experiencing a surge.
However, Ringler-Cerniglia agrees data explaining Michigan’s outpacing of other states in cases is limited.
“We don’t have a lot of data to rely on,” she said. “We can maybe speculate, you know, we’re in this point where we’ve had restrictions in place and they’ve been removed so we have an increase in exposures and that’s what’s happening.”
It also comes down to who is being vaccinated. While Michigan rolls out vaccines to combat the surge, those who are less likely to get vaccinated are more at risk for exposure, said Rupali Limaye, director of behavioral and implementation science at Johns Hopkins University.
Those who are anti-mask are the same people who are anti-lockdown, as well as the same people who are anti-vaccine, Limaye said.
“These kind of groups have now coalesced a little bit together,” Limaye said. “...They’re still small, like in terms of just individual groups, but now that they’re sort of joining forces it’s becoming more of a problem that we’re seeing these types of behaviors coupled together.”
RELATED: Key differences separate ‘anti-vaxxers’ from Michiganders hesitant to get COVID-19 vaccine
In early February, Michigan ranked 46th among states in new coronavirus cases. Mobility data suggested that Michiganders were staying home more and going out less than most Americans.
Around that time, the state lifted its ban on indoor dining at bars and restaurants, and later expanded capacity limits in early March. Combined with holiday celebrations (St. Patrick’s Day and Easter) and spring break trips, there have been an increase in opportunities for exposure through travel and gatherings.
With most restrictions lifted, Michiganders are becoming more mobile.
By the end of March, Michigan’s retail and recreation mobility was 3% below pre-pandemic levels, according to data from the CDC. That’s up from 39% below pre-pandemic levels as of mid-February.
Some in Michigan who opposed the state’s restrictions argue that the shutdowns simply delayed inevitable infections that are popping up now. But the delay saved lives, especially senior citizens who are now vaccinated, said Dr. Mark Hamed, a public health physician and county medical director in Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Tuscola, Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw and Oscoda counties.
As of Wednesday, more than 68% of senior citizens had received their first dose of vaccine and more than 57% were fully vaccinated, including many who live in long-term care facilities like nursing homes.
While it’s true that a few people who get vaccinated will still get COVID, the chances are substantially reduced and breakthrough cases are less likely to be severe, Hamed said.
As of March 30, Michigan has had 246 fully vaccinated residents test positive for COVID-19, including three residents 65 years or older who died, according to data from the state health department. These cases account for .01% of the 1.7 million Michiganders who received both doses of vaccine.
Despite a lack of data to explain why the surge is hitting harder in Michigan, Eisenburg said it should be taken as a reminder that the pandemic isn’t over yet.
“What we can say for sure is it’s a warning sign right now that people should be careful because we do see these explosions, we are seeing increases in hospitalizations and we don’t want want to see mortality spike in the same way,” he said.
“That’s exactly why we want people to do the right thing and stay the course for another 2-3-4 months until we see really high coverage in vaccinations.”
Read more on MLive:
Whitmer on CNN: Michigan could shed COVID-19 restrictions, fully reopen this summer
Michigan hospital to study COVID-19 vaccine in people with severe allergies
COVID-19 risk from touching contaminated surface is less than 1 in 10,000, new CDC study says
The Link LonkApril 11, 2021 at 08:01PM
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/04/as-michigans-coronavirus-cases-surge-experts-say-its-hard-to-pinpoint-an-exact-cause.html
As Michigan’s coronavirus cases surge, experts say it’s hard to pinpoint an exact cause - MLive.com
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