For a very short time, Julio Teheran seemed like a great signing.
An affable fellow, good teammate and well-respected worker, Teheran was fantastic in spring training.
On March 24, manager A.J. Hinch made it official: Teheran had done more than enough to make the team.
His minor-league contract was converted into a Major League deal with a base salary of $3 million.
What happened next was frustratingly familiar for the Tigers: Teheran made exactly one start before coming down with a shoulder injury.
On Sunday, Hinch confirmed what had already become clear: Teheran won’t pitch again in 2021.
The Tigers thought they were making a thoughtful, low-risk, low-cost investment for a pitcher who had been one of the league’s most reliable innings eaters for most of his career.
Instead, they ended up paying $600,000 per inning for Teheran’s services.
Teheran’s demise has reinforced a lesson that the Tigers have learned all too often since embarking on their rebuilding process in 2017: It’s really hard to get a reliable starting pitcher on a low-cost, one-year contract.
The Tigers have gone 1-for-7 in that department, with the only success story being Mike Fiers in 2018.
The others have not fared as well: Teheran, who was injured after just one start in 2021; Jose Ureña, who has posted a 5.95 ERA in 87 innings so far this year; Ivan Nova, who wasn’t very good before getting hurt in 2020; Matt Moore and Tyson Ross, who were both hurt for most of 2019; and Francisco Liriano, who was never especially good in 2018 but at least fulfilled his mandate of eating a fair amount of innings (133).
The Tigers will almost certainly be back in that same market yet again this winter, looking to add at least one free-agent pitcher.
But it could also be argued that they have two decisions.
Matthew Boyd is not a free agent, but he’ll be entering his final arbitration year in 2022. That means the Tigers will have a choice very similar to free agency: Give him a one-year deal for about $8 million or let him walk.
Boyd could make the decision easier with a strong finish to the season.
But even if he doesn’t, it would be tough for the Tigers to pass up the security of a known commodity like Boyd for the risks of the one-year free agent market.
Perhaps the Tigers could take the $8 million they saved on Boyd and go find two other capable veteran starters on short-term details.
Perhaps.
Recent history suggests it’s not that easy.
Even if the Tigers decided to pursue one pitcher for about $8 million a year, it’s still a bit of a lottery ticket.
Five prominent free-agent starters signed for about that amount last winter:
The Blue Jays scored big this year with lefty Robbie Ray, a Cy Young candidate in 2021. But the Angels didn’t get much out of Jose Quintana. The Mariners signed James Paxton, who has missed almost the whole year with injury.
The Cardinals decided to invest in franchise icon Adam Wainwright for one more season, and their bet paid off handsomely. The Twins gave about the same amount of money to another long-tenured veteran in J.A. Happ, a move that didn’t fare as well.
If you think these results are mixed, check out the results at the bottom range of the market, where the Tigers have done most of their shopping the last three winters. Jose Ureña’s performance for $3.25 million suddenly doesn’t look that bad.
Of course, developing your own starters is often cheaper and more valuable than scouring the free-agent market. But the Tigers will likely want at least one or two more arms to complement youngsters like Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal.
Maybe they’ll hit it big this winter and score the next Robbie Ray. Or maybe we’ll be writing about the latest free-agent starter that didn’t pan out at this time next year.
The Link LonkSeptember 06, 2021 at 09:16PM
https://www.mlive.com/tigers/2021/09/julio-teheran-his-season-officially-over-is-latest-example-of-how-hard-it-is-to-find-free-agent-starters.html
Julio Teheran, his season officially over, is latest example of how hard it is to find free-agent starters - MLive.com
https://news.google.com/search?q=hard&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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