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Wednesday, April 20, 2022

N.Y. Cases Rise, but Hochul Says Hard to Know What Form It May Take - The New York Times

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Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York warned on Wednesday that another spike in coronavirus cases could be underway in the state, this one driven by two new versions of the Omicron variant. Even so, Ms. Hochul said, it was difficult to forecast what form the current “bump” might take, urging “common sense” safety measures such as home testing.

Though new confirmed cases and hospitalizations were still far below their peaks in January, the governor said that both metrics were increasing across the state, a troubling but not unexpected development with the circulation of the two subvariants, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1, which as of last week accounted for the vast majority of cases statewide.

So far, the two subvariants do not appear to cause more severe disease than previous variants, state health officials said last week. But they appear to spread more rapidly than BA.2, the dominant version among new U.S. cases and which itself was more contagious than any variant that came before it.

“We’re not panicking,” Ms. Hochul said, explaining that known cases were still far lower than they had been at the height of the Omicron surge. Still, she acknowledged that that surge had begun with modest increases, much like the ones the state was seeing now. “We’re not expecting that to happen here. But on the other hand, we don’t know,” she added.

As of Tuesday, there were an average of more than 6,070 new cases reported a day across the state, an increase of 69 percent over the last two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Hospitalizations had increased by 35 percent over the same time period, to an average of more than 1,500 a day.

New reported cases by day
Mar. 2020
Jul.
Nov.
Mar. 2021
Jul.
Nov.
Mar. 2022
20,000
40,000
60,000 cases
7–day average
6,073
Source: State and local health agencies. Daily cases are the number of new cases reported each day. The seven-day average is the average of the most recent seven days of data.

Ms. Hochul said that at-home testing, which has been widely embraced as a convenient and timely alternative to seeking out a clinic or government-run site, could be helpful in allowing people to take precautions from the moment they first experience symptoms or knew they were exposed.

But she also noted that the proliferation of home test kits — including those provided by the state — had contributed to a “gap in information” that made it difficult to assess the virus’s spread. Experts believe that new cases are increasingly undercounted with the rise of at-home testing.

“We’re going to continue providing the test kits, which is good,” Ms. Hochul said. “But we also know that we don’t have a clear picture of exactly what’s going on.”

Hospitalizations are a better indicator, if a lagging one. State data shows that hospitalizations are also on the rise, although Ms. Hochul cautioned that only about half of those had been admitted for Covid symptoms, while the rest had been diagnosed with the virus while seeking care for other reasons, such as heart attacks, car accidents or sports injuries.

In Central New York this week, cases reached 62 per 100,000 residents, while the rest of the state hovers around 40, according state data. That is up from 10 in early March.

Despite signs that case numbers are on the rise, Ms. Hochul refrained from introducing any new restrictions. In recent months, New York removed a requirement to wear masks or show proof of vaccination indoors, and a mask mandate in schools, while New York City rolled back vaccine requirements in restaurants.

Across the country, Covid safety measures have eased by governors and by the courts. This week, a federal judge in Florida struck down the federal mask mandate for airlines, trains and buses, though the Biden administration has appealed the ruling.

For now, New York will continue to require masks on subways, buses and in airports, as well as in homeless shelters, correctional facilities and state-regulated health care facilities.

“Let’s just be smart about it,” Ms. Hochul said. “I think people do feel better when they’re in public transit sitting really close to somebody to know that people are protecting themselves. And again, this is very much in the short term.”

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April 21, 2022 at 05:50AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/nyregion/new-york-covid-hochul.html

N.Y. Cases Rise, but Hochul Says Hard to Know What Form It May Take - The New York Times

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