FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Incoming colder air with a hard freeze Tuesday & Wednesday - KY3

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Good Sunday evening to you all. After the last of our rain and thunderstorm chances from last night cleared out, the cloud cover was a little stubborn to clear out. With some peaks of the sun, we did see highs push back into the upper 60s with some spots close to 70° this afternoon. However, Mother Nature is ready to send in the coldest air of the season so far. Ahead of its approach, we’re keeping First Alert Days in place for Tuesday and Wednesday. Freeze warnings will go into effect across the entire Ozarks for Tuesday morning with a hard freeze looking likely. A similar setup is looking likely for Wednesday morning as well.

With a hard freeze looking likely for Tuesday morning & Wednesday morning, we'll maintain both days as First Alert Days.(KY3)

Not only is the upper-level setup changing with a vigorous upper low approaching the Great Lakes, look at the surface setup. Behind our last frontal system, high pressure coming out of Canada will assist in bringing in drier air and cooler than normal temperatures to start the week out.

After our fronts pushed rain chances out of here, a Canadian high is ready to bring in drier air and the coldest air of the season so far.(KY3)

While not pushing freeze levels for Monday morning, it will certainly be a cold start to the day across the area. Under clearing skies and a light north-northwest breeze, lows will drop back into the middle to upper 30s as we head back to work and school.

Under clearing skies and a lighter northwest breeze, Monday will get off to a frosty start.(KY3)

Even under sunny skies, the cooler air mass will only allow highs to climb into the middle 50s around the Springfield area. Some cooler numbers are possible in the northeastern Ozarks with slightly warmer numbers to the south and west of Springfield.

After a cold start, sunny skies and a northwest breeze will only let highs climb into the middle 50s across much of the area Monday afternoon.(KY3)

With quite a bit of dry air in place for Monday, the wind speeds during the day won’t be particularly helpful. While not close to red flag warning criteria, the sustained wind speeds at 5 to 15 mph (with some gusts near 20 mph at times) will elevate the fire danger for our Monday. It would be wise to hold off on any outdoor burning until the winds die down or when we can get better moisture to return.

While not close to red flag warning criteria, the northwest wind at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20) Monday afternoon will elevate the fire danger with dry air in place.(KY3)

After sunset, the numbers will quickly drop through Monday evening and into Tuesday morning. Much of the area will drop into the middle 20s to get the day started. With these numbers and possibly some upper teens and lower 20s in some low-lying eastern areas, this will be a hard freeze that will put an end to the growing season across the area.

The coldest air of the season arrives Tuesday with lows in the 20s across much of the area. Some low-lying spots could sneak into the upper teens and lower 20s.(KY3)

Even with plenty of open blue skies for Tuesday, it will be quite cool with highs only topping out in the middle to upper 40s. That’s a good deal below our average high of 69° for this part of October.

After a cold start to the day, sunny skies will only allow highs to climb into the middle to upper 40s.(KY3)

The upper-level setup won’t change for Wednesday. That means the upper-level low will stay close to the Great Lakes while the upper-level high will stay well to our west and northwest.

With the vigorous upper-level setup still in place for Wednesday, it will stay chilly with highs in the 50s for Wednesday.(KY3)

While this will lead to another cold start with lows in the 20s for Wednesday morning, both features will loosen their grip on the area starting Wednesday afternoon. With mostly sunny skies, that will push highs into the middle 50s. Although a bit warmer, that will still be quite chilly for a middle October day. With the upper-level heights set to rise by Thursday and the end of the week, milder air will return just in time for the weekend.

After colder than normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will climb back above normal by the end of the week.(KY3)

While the upcoming weekend will start dry and quite mild (even a little warm), look at what wants to come our way by early next week down below.

While we stay quite mild for early next week, an upper-level low will want to try and bring rain chances back into play by then.(KY3)

Indications show a developing upper-level low wanting to develop and work into the Rockies by the end of the upcoming weekend. If that feature can hold and work into the area early next week, that will be our next best shot for rain chances. For now, it looks like a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could sneak in late in the day next Sunday before better rain chances return next Monday through Wednesday. Given how we need the rain, we’ll keep an eye on that potential setup over the next several days.

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October 17, 2022 at 07:05AM
https://www.ky3.com/2022/10/17/first-alert-weather-incoming-colder-air-with-hard-freeze-tuesday-wednesday/

FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Incoming colder air with a hard freeze Tuesday & Wednesday - KY3

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